Includes book reviews and unpublished papers, which are often more revealing than the published ones
2025
‘Decolonising’ the Clinical Encounter via Multi-Criteria Decision Support

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 328: 101-105 dot: 10.3233/SHTI250681 (with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Vije Kumar Rajput)

Focusing on Diagnostic Accuracy Jeopardises Therapeutic Optimality

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics  2025 327: 58-62

with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Vije Kumar Rajput

MIE 2025 Glasgow

2024
Digitalising Clinical Guidelines: The Challenge of Patient’s Preferences

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 316: 1287-91 (with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Vije Kumar Rajput)

Do Shared Decision-Making and Patient Decision Aids Take Patient’s Preferences Seriously?

Studies in Health Technology and Information 314: 17-23 (with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Vije Kumar Rajput)

The ‘Reasonable Patient’ of 2027: A Vision Paper

Studies in Health Technology and Information 314: 70-74 (with Mette Kjer Kaltoft)

Taking the Patient’s Preferences into Account in the Anticoagulation Decision: Largely Lip-Service?

Studies in Health Technology and Information 314: 65-69 (with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Vije Kumar Rajput)

Will ‘Computable’ Clinical Guidelines Be Compatible with Personalised Care?

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics  313 2024: 192-197  (with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Vije Kumar Rajput)

2023
Inferring Causality is Preference-Sensitive: We Need a Book of Who as Well as Why

Special Topic Conference Turin.
Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 309: 38-42 [with Vije Kumar Rajput and Mette Kjer Kaltoft]

2022
The causal plausibility decision in healthcare

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 2022 299: 75-88 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Vije Kumar Rajput]

Individualising Life Expectancy Is Necessary for Optimal Prescribing

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 298: 112-116 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Vije Kumar Rajput]; PMID: 36073467 doi:10.3233/SHTI220918

2021
Dissonance Deficit Denial Disorder

The Coronavirus and Brexit debates have led to the recognition of a new disease, previously undetected and therefore under-diagnosed and under-treated. Dr Ivor Newcon, of Ailmongering University Hospital, has led the world in researching and diagnosing the new disease

The best principle is the best principle
The best principle is the best principle

At the end of ‘Research implications of science-informed, value-based decision making’ (2004) I noted that it was drawn from a much longer manuscript, with a final section specifically elaborating on the argument directed at the Precautionary Principle. This manuscript was never submitted for publication and is posted now, deliberately unchanged, because the argument remains just as relevant in the world of Covid 19, where it is currently resurfacing.

Communicating About Mortality in Health Decision Support: ‘What and Why and When, and How and Where and Who’
Communicating About Mortality in Health Decision Support: ‘What and Why and When, and How and Where and Who’

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 285: 31-38 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Vije Kumar Rajput]  PMID: 34734849; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI210570

2020
Measures of decision aid quality are preference-sensitive and interest-conflicted 1 : normative measures

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 275 : 47-51 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Vije Kumar Rajput]  PMID: 33227738; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI200692

Multicriteria Decision Support would avoid OverDiagnosis and Treatment

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 275 : 172-6 [with Vije Kumar Rajput and Mette Kjer Kaltoft] PMID: 33227763; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI200717

Patients with multiple Long-Term Conditions: meeting the challenges of Personalised Decision Making

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 273 : 258-261 [with Vije Kumar Rajput and Mette Kjer Kaltoft]  PMID: 33087623; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI200652

Evaluations of decision support tools are preference-sensitive and interest-conflicted : the case of deliberation aids

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 273 : 217-222 [with Vije Kumar Rajput and Mette Kjer Kaltoft]  PMID: 33087615; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI200643

Are Clinical Decision Support Systems compatible with patient-centred care?

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 270 :532 – 536 [with Vije Kumar Rajput and Mette Kjer Kaltoft]  PMID: 32570440; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI200217

Decision quality is a preference-sensitive formative concept: how do some existing measures compare?

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 270 : 562-566 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft]  PMID: 32570446; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI200223

Covid-19, the Swedish ‘Experiment’, and Me
Covid-19, the Swedish ‘Experiment’, and Me

 Studies in Health Technology and Informatics, 273: 211-216  PMID: 33087614; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI200642

Note: Bitly link to table  is now

 

2019
Translating the results of Discrete Choice Experiments into  p-/e-/m-health decision support tools

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 261 :  193-8 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft]  PMID: 31156115

 

Uncertainty-Adjusted Translation for Preference-Sensitive Decision Support

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 258 : 174-8 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft]  PMID: 30942740

Strong recommendations are inappropriate in person-centred care:  the case of Anti-Platelet Therapy

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 262 : 110 – 113 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft]  PMID: 31349278; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI190029

A multi-criterial support tool for the multimorbidity decision in general practice

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 261 : 205-10 [with Vije Kumar Rajput and Mette Kjer Kaltoft]  PMID: 31156117

The evaluation of decision support tools needs to be preference context-sensitive

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 265 : 163 – 168 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Jesper Bo Nielsen] PMID: 31431593; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI190157

Why a global PROMIS can’t be kept

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 262 : 114 – 117 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft]  PMID: 31349279; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI190030

 

PROMs need PRIMs: Standardised outcome measures lack the preference-sensitivity needed in person-centred care

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 262 : 118 – 121 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft] PMID: 31349280; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI190031

shared decision making is a Preference-sensitive Formative Construct: the Implications

European Journal for Person Centered Healthcare 2019 7 (3)  506-517

A Generic Rapid Evaluation Support Tool (GREST) for clinical and commissioning decisions
A Generic Rapid Evaluation Support Tool (GREST) for clinical and commissioning decisions

Studies In Health Technology and Informatics 264 576-580 [with Vije Kumar Rajput and Mette Kjer Kaltoft]  PMID: 31437989; DOI: 10.3233/SHTI190288

2018
Dual purpose, dual audience: MCDA-based tools can simultaneously support personal health decisions and educate persons and clinicians

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 255: 257-61 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Jesper Bo Nielsen]  PMID: 30306948

Preference-Sensitive apomediative Decision Support is key to facilitating Self-Produced Health.

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 255: 132-136. [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Jesper Bo Nielsen] PMID: 30306922

Separating Risk Assessment from Risk Management poses legal and ethical problems in Person-Centred Care

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 251: 23-26 [with Mette Kjer Ksltoft and Jesper Bo Nielsen] PMID: 29968592

Risk thresholds and risk classifications pose problems for Person-Centred Care
Risk thresholds and risk classifications pose problems for Person-Centred Care

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 251: 19–22 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Jesper Bo Nielsen] PMID: 29968591

2017
Formative preference-sensitive measures are needed in person-centred healthcare at both clinical and policy levels

European Journal of Person Centered Healthcare 5: 495-500 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft and Jesper Bo Nielsen] PMIDX

2016
The role of personalised choice in decision support: A Randomized Controlled Trial of an online decision aid for Prostate Cancer Screening

PLoS One 11: e0152999 [with Glenn Salkeld, Michelle Cunich, Kirsten Howard, Manish Patel, Graham Mann and Wendy Lipworth] PMID: 27050101; DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0152999

Preferences cannot be treated as epidemiological characteristics in person-centred care : a riposte

European Journal of Person Centered Healthcare 4: 6–9. [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Jesper Bo Nielsen and Glenn Salkeld] PMIDX

Towards integrating the principlist and casuist approaches to ethical decisions via multi-criterial support
Towards integrating the principlist and casuist approaches to ethical decisions via multi-criterial support

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 225: 540–54 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Jesper Bo Nielsen and Glenn Salkeld] PMID: 27332259

Video on nurse’s disclosure dilemma (MKK)

2015
Can a Discrete Choice Experiment contribute to person-centred healthcare?

European Journal for Person Centered Healthcare 23: 431–437 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Jesper Bo  Nielsen and Glenn Salkeld] PMIDX

Bringing feedback in from the outback via a generic and preference-sensitive instrument for course quality assessment

JMIR Research Protocols 4: e15 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Jesper Bo Nielsen, Glenn Salkeld and Jo Lander] PMID: 25720558; DOI: 10.2196/resprot.4012

Enhancing healthcare provider feedback and personal health literacy: dual use of a Decision Quality measure

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 218: 74–79 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Jesper Bo Nielsen and Glenn Salkeld] PMID: 26262530

Health informatics can avoid committing symbolic violence by recognizing and supporting generic decision-making competencies

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 218 : 172–177 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Jesper Bo Nielsen and Glenn Salkeld] PMID: 26262547

Who should decide how much and what information is important in person-centred health care?

Journal of Health Services Research and Policy 20: 192–195 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Jesper Bo Nielsen and Glenn Salkeld].  PMID: 25577192; DOI: 10.1177/1355819614567911

Without a reconceptualisation of “evidence base” evidence-based person-centred healthcare is an oxymoron

European Journal for Person Centered Healthcare 23: 496–502. [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Jesper Bo Nielsen, Øystein Eiring and Glenn Salkeld] PMIDX

Caveat emptor NICE: biased use of cost-effectiveness is inefficient and inequitable
Caveat emptor NICE: biased use of cost-effectiveness is inefficient and inequitable

f1000 Research 4: 1078. [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Jesper Bo Nielsen and Glenn Salkeld] PMID: 27803795; DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.7191.1

2014
The development of a multi-criteria decision analysis aid to help with contraceptive choices: My Contraception Tool

Journal of Family Planning and Reproductive Health Care 40 :96-101 [with Rebecca French, Frances Cowan and Kaye Wellings]  PMID: 24265469; DOI: 10.1136/jfprhc-2013-100699

Heptathlon gold to France not Ukraine
Heptathlon gold to France not Ukraine

Sports Technology and Performance, 2014 (March) , 11-14

the current and conventional scoring system for the heptathlon, like that for the men’s decathlon, both infringes a fundamental principle of all sporting competitions and is inequitable in relation to the multiple disciplines involved. The fundamental principle breached is that only the relative performance of the competitors on the day (or days) is relevant to the outcome. Inequity arises when the best performer in each of the multiple disciplines is not rewarded equally and the disciplines are therefore not weighted equally.

Enhancing informatics competency under uncertainty at the point of decision (‘Probers’)
Enhancing informatics competency under uncertainty at the point of decision (‘Probers’)

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 205: 975–979
[with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Jesper Bo Nielsen and Glenn Salkeld] PMID: 25160333

Assessing decision quality in patient-centred care requires a preference-sensitive measure
Assessing decision quality in patient-centred care requires a preference-sensitive measure

Journal of Health Services Research and Policy 19:110–117 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Michelle Cunich and Glenn Salkeld]PMID: 24335587; DOI  10.1177/1355819613511076

2013
Decision support in Down’s syndrome screening using multi-criteria decision analysis: a pilot study

Epidemiology Biostatistics and Public Health 2013 10 (3) 1-13 (with Anna Erenbourg, Judith Stephenson, Pranav Pandya and Patricia Jones

Addressing the disconnect between public health science and personalised health care: the potential role of cluster analysis in combination with multi-criteria decision analysis

Lancet 382 : 552 online 29/11/13) (with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Robin Turner, Jesper Bo Nielsen, Glenn Salkeld and Michelle Cunich) (Poster here)

Mapping the translation challenge

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 192: 996  PMIDX

Nursing informatics and nursing ethics: Addressing their disconnect through an enhanced TIGER vision

Studies in Health Technology and Informatics 192: 879-883 [Mette Kjer Kaltoft] PMID: 23920684

Towards generic online multicriteria decision support in patient-centred health care.
Towards generic online multicriteria decision support in patient-centred health care.

Health Expectations 18: 689–702 [with Mette Kjer Kaltoft, Glenn Salkeld and Michelle Cunich]  PMID: 23910715; DOI: 10.1111/hex.12111

2012
2011
Integrating evidence and individual preferences using a web-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analytic tool: An application to Prostate Cancer screening
Integrating evidence and individual preferences using a web-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analytic tool: An application to Prostate Cancer screening

Patient, 4 (2), 1–10 [with Michelle Cunich, Glenn Salkeld, Joan Henderson, Clare Bayram, Helena Britt and Kirsten Howard]  PMID: 21766911; DOI: 10.2165/11587070-000000000-00000

2010
2008
Multi-element competitions are often scored inappropriately
Multi-element competitions are often scored inappropriately

Heptathlon, Men’s Triathlon, 3 Day Event and Mens Pentathlon medals around wrong necks?

2007
Using decision analysis to help young people with contraceptive choices

pp 133-145 in Philip Baker, Kate Guthrie, Cindy Hutchinson, Roslyn Kane and Kaye Wellings (eds.), Teenage Pregnancy and Reproductive Health, Royal College of Obstetrics and Gynaecology [with Rebecca French]

Decision Analysis: the ethical approach to most health decision making
Decision Analysis: the ethical approach to most health decision making

pages 577-583 in R. E. Ashcroft, et al. (eds.), Principles of Health Care Ethics: Second Edition, Chichester: Wiley

2006
★ The Bayesian approach to decision making
★ The Bayesian approach to decision making

pp. 309–321 in A. Killoran, C. Swann, & M. Kelly (Eds.), Public Health Evidence: Tackling Health Inequalities, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

 

2005
No room for kinkiness in a public healthcare system

Pharmacoeconomics, 23 (12), 1203–1206.

2004
Quality weighting in evidence synthesis for decision support is a matter of preferences – QE-5D is proposed as an instrument for their elicitation

Collège des Économistes de la Santé/Health Economists Study Group, Joint Workshop. Paris, January 14-16 2004 (with Zaid Chalabi)

Research implications of science-informed, value-based decision making
Research implications of science-informed, value-based decision making

International Journal of Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health, 17 (1), 83–90.

Researching doctors’ decisions
Researching doctors’ decisions

Quality and Safety in Health Care, 13(6), 411–412.

2003
NICE (and the NHS) – quo vadis?

pp 9-15 and 65-67 in Adam Oliver (ed.), Health care priority setting: implications for health inequalities.  London: Nuffield Trust [with comments by Karl Claxton, Mark Sculpher and Michael Drummond]

Decision makers’ needs as capacities to benefit

Value in Health, 6 (4), 403.  PMID: 12859578; DOI: 10.1046/j.1524-4733.2003.64001.x

 

Covariance decompositions in betting markets: early insights using data from French trotting
Covariance decompositions in betting markets: early insights using data from French trotting

pp. 95–105 in Leighton Vaughan-Williams (ed.), The Economics of Gambling, London: Routledge.

2002
Intuition versus Analysis: the benefits of modelling health care decisions

LSHTM, Department of Public Health and Policy. Research Briefing, 2002

 

Health Impact: its estimation, assessment and analysis

pp. 296–309 in Judy Orme, Jane Powell, Pat Taylor, Tony Harrison and Melanie Grey (eds.), Public Health for the 21st Century: New Perspectives on Policy, Participation and Practice, Buckingham: Open University Press.

 

Development and preliminary evaluation of a clinical guidance programme for the decision about prophylactic oophorectomy in women undergoing a hysterectomy
Development and preliminary evaluation of a clinical guidance programme for the decision about prophylactic oophorectomy in women undergoing a hysterectomy

Quality and Safety in Health Care, 11 (1), 32–39 [with Ian Pell, Aileen Clarke, Andrew Kennedy and Vanita Bhavnani]

Decision validity should determine whether a generic or condition-specific HRQOL measure is used in health care decisions
Decision validity should determine whether a generic or condition-specific HRQOL measure is used in health care decisions

Health Economics, 11(1), 1–8. [with Commentaries by Gordon Guyatt, David Feeny, John Brazier and Ray Fitzpatrick]

2001
Analysing health outcomes
Analysing health outcomes

Journal of Medical Ethics, 27 (4), 245–250.

2000
Towards informed and shared decision making – or better decision making?

unpublished (but see 2002 Health Expectations paper)

Women’s views of two interventions designed to assist in the prophylactic oophorectomy decision: A qualitative pilot evaluation

Health Expectations, 5 (2), 156–171 [with Vanita BHAVNANI, Aileen Clarke, Andrew Kennedy and Ian Pell]

1999
Being reasonable about the economics of health [Review]
Being reasonable about the economics of health [Review]

A J Culyer and A K Maynard (eds.) Being reasonable about the economics of health. Selected essays by Alan Williams Cheltenham: Edward Elgar 1999

Review in Health Economics 1999 8 181–185.

Test interpretation and probability evaluation: a plea for consistency in tabular and graphical presentations

Rejected by Medical Decision Making. (letters attached; not resubmitted as call to shorten ridiculous)

KIGS and KIMS as tools for evidence-based medicine

Hormone Research, 51 (Supplement 1), 83–86 [with Michael Ranke]

What Decision Analysis can offer the clinical decision maker

Hormone Research, 51 (Supplement 1), 73–82.

 

1998
Producing informed consumers and users of Decision Analysis

Medical Decision Making, 18, 237 [Letter]

The “number needed to treat” and the “adjusted NNT” in health care decision-making

Journal of Health Services Research and Policy, 3 (1), 44–49.

Comment in Bandolier 5 (5) 1998

1997
Theory and Methods of Economic Evaluation of Health Care [Review]

Magnus Johannesson Theory and Methods of Economic Evaluation of Health Care Dordrecht: Kluwer 1996.

Review in Health Economics 1997 6 321–323.

The ‘pathology’ of decision making in clinical practice and a framework for evaluation

pp 27-41 in H-K Selbmann (ed.) Papers and Reports of the WHO Conference on Guidelines in Health Care Practice, Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft

Summary of Conference and interesting list of participants. Still online here

Decision Analysis in guideline development and clinical practice: the ‘Clinical Guidance Tree’

pp 162-185 in H-K Selbmann (ed.) Papers and Reports of the WHO Conference on Guidelines in Health Care Practice, Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft

1996
1994
Decision analysis: the ethical approach to medical decision making

pp. 421–434 in Raanan Gillon (ed.), Principles of Health Care Ethics, Chichester: Wiley.

A theory of news value

Paper for Ninth International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking, Las Vegas, Nevada

★ The danger of partial or non-comparative evaluation [‘PONCE’]
★ The danger of partial or non-comparative evaluation [‘PONCE’]

Health Care Analysis, 3 (3), 232–4. [Comment on Alan Williams “Health economics and health care priorities”, pp 221-226]

Further elaborations of PONCE extracted from  HESG 1993 and Selbmann WHO conference proceedings 1997

1993
Economics, Medicine and Health Care [Review]

Gavin Mooney, Economics, Medicine and Health Care (2nd edition) Harvester Wheatsheaf 1992.

Review in Health Economics 1993 2 (1), 79–80.

Clinical decision analysis: an application to the management of an elderly person with hypertension who has had a transient ischaemic attack.

pp 99-109  in Huw Llewelyn and Anthony Hopkins (eds.) Analysing how we reach clinical decisions. London: Royal College of Physicians of London [with Graeme Hankey and Huw Llewellyn]

Clinical decision analysis: background and introduction

pp. 7–26 in H. Llewelyn and A. Hopkins (eds.), Analysing how we reach clinical decisions,  London: Royal College of Physicians of London.

Would Decision Analysis eliminate medical accidents?
Would Decision Analysis eliminate medical accidents?

pp116-130 in Charles Vincent, Maeve Ennis and Robert Audley (eds.)  Medical Accidents, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

1992
The ethics of parimutuel systems
The ethics of parimutuel systems

Journal of Gambling Studies, 8 (4), 371–381.
Also published in Eadington, William R and Cornelius, Judy (eds.) Gambling and Commercial Gaming: Essays in Business, Economics, Philosophy and Science. (pp. 345-355) Reno: Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming, University of Nevada. pp. 345-355

1991
“The risk approach: unassailable logic?” [Comment]

Comment on Michael Hayes, “The risk approach: unassailable logic?” Social Science and Medicine, 1991 33 (1), 66–67.

Quality is quantity: the case for proper outcome measurement

National Association of Quality Assurance in Healthcare Journal 1991  5, 10-12.

Equity, efficiency and ethics

pp 18-38 in The ethics of allocating health resources Sydney: NSW Health Authority ( HPA 91-58) 1991

 

A short and slightly impolite paper about health status and health service outcome measurement

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Priorities for National Health Statistics, 1991

The earnest approach to problem betting

Journal of Gambling Studies, 7 (2), 177–179

Consumer protection in betting

Journal of Consumer Policy 14: 87–98 [with Mark Coton and David Miers]. Also pp 433-444 in William Eadington and Judy Cornelius (ed.) Gambling and Public Policy: International Perspectives, University of Nevada, Reno

1990
Clinical decision making: risk is a dangerous word and hubris is a sin

pp 28-39 in D. Carson (ed.), Risk Taking in Mental Disorder: Analyses, Policies and Practical Strategies SLE Publications 1990

Bayes and the art of social risk reduction

Open University U201 Risk Newsletter

1988
Introduction to Professional Judgment
Introduction to Professional Judgment

‘Introduction to Professional Judgment: a reader in clinical decision making’ (edited with Arthur Elstein) Cambridge University Press, 1988, 1-41

1985
In Search of Equity: Health Needs and the Health Care System [Review]

Ronald Bayer, Arthur Caplan, Norman Daniels (eds.) In Search of Equity: Health Needs and the Health Care System, New York: Plenum, 1983

Review in Sociology of Health and Illness 7 (3) 1985, 452-3

Inside information and corruption in betting markets

Society for Study of Gambling Newsletter, 8: 1-7

1984
Perceived risk: a chimera?

pp 83-93 in A. Jouhar (ed.) Risk in Society: Proceedings of the First Risk International Seminar London: John Libbey 1984

Probabilistic responses to Multiple-Choice Tests

pp 132-140  in Euan Henderson and Michael Nathenson (ads)  Independent learning in higher education Englewood Cliffs, Educational Technology Publications, 1984 (with Paul Lefrere)

Anyone for a Bayesian Wimbledon?

Teaching Statistics, 6 (3), 66–71.

 

1983
The Theory of Commodity Price Stabilization [Review]

DMG Newbery and JE Stiglitz, The Theory of Commodity Price Stabilization: A Study in the Economics of Risk  Oxford University Press 1981.

Review in Economic Journal 1983 93 (369), 230–1232.

1982
Why Spain should win the World Cup
Why Spain should win the World Cup

New Scientist !982 (10 June)

Comments on Atiyah, ‘A legal perspective on recent contributions to the valuation of life’

pp. 265–272 in M. Jones-Lee (ed.)The Value of Life and Safety, Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company.

The risks of contract law
The risks of contract law

International Review of Law and Economics, 2 (2), 193–204.

1981
Gambling in Education and Education in Gambling
Gambling in Education  and Education in Gambling

In William Eadington (ed.) Proceedings of Fifth National Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking was Caesars Tahoe Hotel and Casino, October 22-25, 1981.

 

Gambling in Education and Education in Gambling, Box: 3/S5, Folder: 16, item: 3. Conferences on Gambling Records, NC1216. University of Nevada, Reno. Special Collections Department.

What does the Ordinary Prudent Person do?

SSRC Economics and Law Seminar Newcastle

[A much shorter version appeared as Dowie 1982]

Football’s failing – the deadly draw
Football’s failing – the deadly draw

New Scientist, 1981 (27 August)

1980
Educating for justified uncertainty

in Roy Winterburn and Leo Evans (eds.) Aspects of educational technology XIV: Educational technology to the year 2000 London: Kogan Page 1980 (with Paul Lefrere and Peter Whalley)

Micromotives and Macrobehaviour [Review]

Thomas C. Schelling, Micromotives and Macrobehaviour New York: Norton 1978

Review in Economic Journal 90 (359) 1980, 648-649

Introduction to Risk and Chance
Introduction to Risk and Chance

Risk and Chance : selected Readings (edited with Paul Lefrere)  Open University Press , 1980, xviii-xxi

1977
The Turf : a Social and Economic History of Horse Racing [Review]

Wray Vamplew, The Turf: A Social and Economic History of Horse Racing, London: Allen Lane 1976

Review in Economic History Review 30 (2) 1977,  356-357

Gambling and Society. Interdisciplinary Studies on the Subject of Gambling [Review]

William R. Eadington (ed.) Gambling and Society. Interdisciplinary Studies on the Subject of Gambling  Charles C Thomas, 1976

Mostly articles presented at the First Annual Conference on Gambling, Las Vegas, Nevada, June 1974

Review in Economic Journal 1977 87 (348), 792-794

The historian as bookmaker

Seminar, University of Melbourne

1976
1975
1919-20 is in need of attention

Economic History Review, 28 (3), 429–450.

The portfolio approach to health behaviour
The portfolio approach to health behaviour

Social Science and Medicine, 9 (11–12), 619–631.

1974
The Growth of the British Economy 1918-68 [Review]

G. A. Phillips and R.T. Maddock, The Growth of the British Economy 1918-68, London: Allen & Unwin 1973

Review in Economic History Review 1974 27 (3), 493-494

1972
1970
Illegal Activities — As Measured and as Not

Economic Record, 46 (116), 517

The Service Ensemble

pp 208-265 in Colin Forster (ed.) Australian Economic Development in the Twentieth Century. London: George Allen and Unwin, .

★ Valuing the benefits of health improvement
★ Valuing the benefits of health improvement

Australian Economic Papers, 1970, 9 , 21–41

Includes the conception of the Quality-Adjusted Unit of Time and a fortiori the QALY (p39)
…”qualitative time remains an essentially quantitative concept, additive with quantitative time, and the weights could be regarded as representing the percentage ability to dispose freely of the given unit of time among chosen activities.”
George W Torrance, ‘Toward A Utility Theory Foundation for Health Status Index ModelsHealth Services Research 1976 11(4): 349–369. PMID: 1025050

“The central idea on which this paper is built was first proposed by Dowie [7]. He suggested that neither life nor health is appropriately valued directly. Rather, the demand for either should be regarded as a demand derived immediately from “time” and ultimately from all things involving time as an input… “ 

1969
Estimates of Australian workforce and employment, 1861- 1961

Australian Economic History Review, 9, 138–55 [with Noel Butlin]

1968
Growth in the Inter-War Period: Some More Arithmetic.
Growth in the Inter-War Period: Some More Arithmetic.

Economic History Review, 21 (1), 93–112.

1967
 As if or not as if: the historian as Hamlet
 As if or not as if: the historian as Hamlet

Australian Economic History Review, 7 (1) 69-85

1966
Grass castles in green fields

Australian Economic History Review, 6 (1) 31-36

A century-old estimate of the National Income of New Zealand

Business Archives and History, 6 (2), 117–131

1965
Studies in New Zealand Investment 1871-1900

PhD Thesis, Australian National University